The real estate market does not move in one direction nationwide. It never has. What is happening in Austin is not what is happening in Cleveland. What is true for a three-bedroom in the suburbs of Dallas has almost nothing to do with a two-bedroom in San Francisco. Before you do anything else, narrow your focus to the specific market you are shopping in and stop reading national headlines as if they apply to you personally.
Home prices at the national level have remained well above their pre-pandemic levels even as sales volume collapsed. The reason is supply. A seller who bought in 2021 at a three percent rate has nowhere affordable to go if they list today, which means the correction that many analysts were expecting simply did not materialize the way the data suggested it should.
Affordability, by the standard measure of what share of median household income goes toward the monthly payment on a median-priced home, is near its worst level since the early 1980s. That is a real problem, and it is not going away quickly. That measure being at a historical extreme does not automatically produce a correction. What it means, practically, is that the pool of qualified buyers is smaller than it was three years ago.
Your credit score affects your rate more directly than most buyers realize. The difference between a 680 score and a 760 score can mean a half-point or more in rate. If your score has room to improve, give yourself three to six months to work on it before you begin in earnest.
The appraisal is the lender’s check, not yours. A low appraisal means the buyer has to make up the gap in cash, renegotiate, or cancel. Ask your agent what the local pattern looks like before you structure an offer without an appraisal contingency.
Budget two to four percent of the purchase price for closing costs, on top of your down payment. First-time buyers routinely underestimate this number. Ask your lender for a Loan Estimate as early in the process as possible.
Real estate is illiquid. Transaction costs, agent commissions, and closing fees mean you typically need three to five years just to break even on a purchase. None of that means do not buy. It means be honest about your time horizon before you commit.
Real estate rewards preparation more than it rewards timing. The market does not wait for the ideal moment, and neither should buyers who have done the work. Check up-to-date property listings and see whether what is available matches what you have been planning for.
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